Wenesday 3rd March 2021
Spring heating oil prices are falling. Since our last post, the cold weather had an icy grip on most parts of the UK. During this period crude oil prices rose pushing UK heating oil prices higher.
Thankfully, the weather is considerably much more milder and agreeable. There are some cold snaps coming along but these are isolated and will be short lived.
However, with that in mind it is wise for heating oil users to check their tank levels. We estimate that during the recent cold spell, homes (dependant on size) have used between 100/200 litres of heatingoil If you have less than 25% of oil in your tank look at getting multiple oil quotes from us bit.ly/3qSvQ3e
Oil prices have posted substantial gains in recent weeks. And most recently after fully pricing in the impacts of U.S. economic stimulus. That, combined with more positive vaccine news with the approval of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
However, there are some caveats and potential pitfalls for crude prices.
OPEC+ could add more supply this week bringing prices down as refinery maintenance season is with us. Chinese demand for crude seems to have lost its impetus.
Other Market Factors
Today, Brent held above $62 per barrel after falls earlier on, despite some headwinds from a slight strengthening . WTI is once again pushing to get over the $60 barrier.
OPEC still expects oil demand to rise by 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, as lock downs gradually ease..
UK Market Trends
Milder weather has started to see UK heating oil prices fall gradually. Surprisingly, all the low price benefits of the last 6 months have since evaporated away. Prices are now on a par with this time last year.
Predicting prices for the next 30 days is difficult. But, we see them moving gradually down then stabilising ready for the summer months. Weather conditions could dramatically change our thinking.
Next week should see a more stable return to normal temperatures for this time of year. Though we do expect crude oil prices to waver. We expect to see heating oil prices level off and slowly fall as we approach Spring.
Most distributors are quoting between 39pl to 42ppl. Brokers are much higher and in the range of 40ppl to 43ppl.
UK Regional Analysis
UK heating oil prices have decreased by 1.83% this week. Over the last 7 days there has been an decrease in the average UK oil distributor heating oil prices of 0.78ppl.
At the moment distributor heating oil prices are trending down.
England – average prices down by 1.01ppl to 43.50ppl.
Wales – average prices fell by 0.55ppl to 44.98ppl.
Scotland – average prices down by 1.46ppl to 45.65ppl.
Northern Ireland – average prices fell by 0.27ppl to 37.06ppl.
Spring heating oil prices are falling. Milder weather conditions in all our regions have seen prices fall. At the present time we recommend you check your heating oil tank regularly. Also check our daily twitter feed @ukheatingoils. You can request multiple quotes from heatingoilshop.com on a regular basis to avoid any possible imminent price rises.
During the last 7 days, UK heating oil prices have gradually decreased by 1.83% this week. This amounts to an average rise of just over 0.78ppl after adjustments and vat.
Generally speaking we feel that UK heating oil prices are now falling in line with seasonal requirements. Crude oil prices are moving up and down over the last week by relatively small amounts.
As of today, the UK heating Oil price of 41.92ppl is 0.01ppl lower than this day a year ago. Not only that, 4 years ago the price was 57.67ppl, 15.75ppl dearer.
Distributor vs Broker Analysis
Average prices for distributors fell 0.78ppl on the week. Similarly, average broker prices also fell by 1.00ppl.
Spring heating oil prices are falling. To put it briefly, the difference between average distributor heating oil prices versus average online heating oil broker prices today is 2.50ppl inc vat.