Colder weather will determine your heating oil price

Colder weather will determine heating oil prices in first month of New Year

Sunday 3rd January 2021

Colder weather will determine your heating oil price in the first month of the New Year.

The mad rush for getting heating oil delivered in time for Christmas is over. However, the cold weather is forecasted for this week will see heating oil users checking their tank levels probably buying fuel at higher prices.

Not surprisingly, if the weather worsens as we progress through winter fuel deliveries will put pressures on a distributor’s logistics.

Market Trends

Crude Oil prices at 18:00hrs 31st December 2020

Crude Oil prices seesawed back and forth over the past two weeks, sandwiched between very strong bullish and bearish forces on each side.

Covid-19 is at its worst in many parts of the world, but vaccinations are picking up in earnest as well.

Other Market Factors

Brent edged back above $51 per barrel after the house passed a major stimulus bill on Monday evening. Considering that markets have been fluctuating it is felt that the New Year should see support today from broader risk markets as stocks are soaring on the prospects of larger stimulus checks.

Meanwhile, it looks like the OPEC+ deal could be tweaked. The terms of the OPEC+ production pact could be revised if oil demand recovers faster in 2021 than expected.

UK Market Trends

Colder weather will determine your heating oil price in first month of the New Year.

Regardless of the time year putting a big strain on all heating oil distributors prices have remained pretty much stable since mid December.

The combination of delay and wait tactics combined with higher crude prices did sent local heating oil prices higher.

Under these circumstances you wouild expect local distributor heating oil prices to fall. To be fair, they did for a while, but with the colder weather with us for the next 8-10 weeks we are seeing heating oil prices rising gradually.

It would be worthy of note to say that crude prices are the highest they have been for a while. Markets will need to be watched an analysed in the coming week or two.

Colder weather will determine heating oil prices in first month of New Year
UK Heating Oil Price since October showing rise as Christmas approaches

Ultimately, the good news is heating oil prices are still 27% cheaper than for the same period last year.

Although prices continue to be at an all time 4 Year low, we see further demand for heating oil increasing as the weather becomes colder. Buy heating oil now and fill up.

At this moment in time, we see distributor prices gradually rising during the next 10 days. Most distributors are quoting between 36ppl to 40ppl and brokers are much higher.

UK Regional Analysis

UK heating oil prices have increased by 1.30% this week. Over the last 7 days there has been an increase in the average UK oil distributor heating oil prices of 0.48ppl.

At the moment distributor heating oil prices are trending up.

England – average prices rose by 0.63ppl to 38.52ppl.

Wales – average prices rose by 0.47ppl to 41.71ppl.

Scotland – average prices rose by 1.00ppl to 42.59ppl.

Northern Ireland – average prices rose by 0.04ppl to 33.17ppl.

Of course, the colder conditions in some of the regions are affecting prices. At the present time we recommend you check in on our twitter feed and website. You can request multiple quotes from on a regular basis to avoid any possible imminent price rises.

Distributor Analysis

Colder weather will determine heating oil price in first month of New Year.

During the last 7 days, UK heating oil prices have risen by 1.30% this week. This amounts to an average rise of just under ½ a penny after adjustment and vat.

Heating oil prices are starting to trend up again as Brent crude stays above the $51 mark.

At this moment in time, we see domestic prices rising gradually in the next two weeks due to increased crude prices and delivery demands. A continued cold spell until the third week in January will also play its role in determining the price mood.

Colder weather will determine heating oil prices in first month of New Year

As of today, the UK heating Oil price of 37.53ppl is 13.87ppl lower than this day a year ago. Not only that, 4 years ago the price was 44.17ppl, 6.64ppl dearer.

As such, this is still a great opportunity to reduce heating costs substantially. Take full advantage of the lower prices now and save. Buy heating oil now as cold weather is on its way!

Distributor vs Broker Analysis

Average prices for distributors rose 0.48ppl on the week. Similarly, average broker prices also rose by 0.47ppl.

To put it briefly, the difference between average distributor heating oil prices versus average online heating oil broker prices today is 3.27ppl inc vat.

This is the one main reason not to use a heating oil broker. On these numbers you would have paid an additional £32.70 on a 1000 litre delivery

Savings fluctuate and depend on your postcode and any other charges made by brokers.

For instance Boilerjuice™ charge an additional £3.49 and is applied to each order of heating oil or gas oil (red diesel) placed on their website or over the telephone.

Furthermore, brokers do not tell you their commission rate as it is calculated into the PPL. So always ask and check your final total. There are many bargains out there, especially from suppliers.

Today’s Broker Analysis

Average broker prices are up to 40.80ppl today. As you can see from the graph below, some brokers are much more expensive than others.

As can be seen, today there is a 6.84ppl difference separating the higher and lower priced brokers in our random postcode check.

Consequently, and fortunately for you, there are plenty of cheaper heating oil bargains from distributors around the country.

Price difference calculations are based on 1000 litres delivered in 5 days to the same randomly picked postcode.

Avoid Brokers

Buying heating oil is all about timing! You would be better off comparing prices from heating oil distributors in your area by using our site

Remember, prices and savings change regularly and are delivery postcode dependant.

Heating oil brokers charge a variety of commissions, surcharges & admin charges or a mixture of all and these affect your final bill.

Colder weather will determine heating oil prices in first month of New Year

The graph above shows you seven-day prices for brokers. Some of these quotes include delivery charges, commission and admin charges. All of which push up the PPL exclusive of VAT price.

Fortunately for heating oil consumers there are plenty of Autumn heating oil bargains around the country.

UK heating oil prices start to move up

Things to do

For current price trends, head on over to our main website at and get multiple heating oil quotes from suppliers to your area.

Always check our daily postings on Twitter @ukheatingoils and keep up with prices and events. You are most welcome and encouraged to follow us.

We would like to draw your attention to an initiative by UKIFDA to keep our elderly, especially those over 75 years, comfotable this winter. You can read all about it here.

Also check out our post on heating oil tanks and new legislation regarding heating oil boilers. Every heating oil user must be aware of the these changes in legislation and costs associated with heating oil spills and leakages.

There is also a very nice piece about whether or not the heating oil is the cheapest fuel. Click here.


We are encouraging all customers to get multiple heating oil quotes & order on the best price possible. A combination of dropping temperatures, tiered lockdowns will result in longer delivery times & probably higher prices.

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