Saturday 7th November2020
Heating oil prices start to move up as lockdown, possible delivery delays and cold weather approaches.
Our concerns are for delivery delays leading up to Christmas starting much earlier than last year due to Covid-19. For the most part, we sincerley hope this will not be the case. But ultimately Christmas deliveries do put pressure on distributors. We highly recommend getting heating oil quotes much earlier this year.
And so the feeling of deja vu continues. This was the fourth week in a row a repeat performance in the markets. Oil trading markets prices tried again to “raise the bar” but with no success. Predictably, the small gains dissipated but not as much as previous weeks.
It has not been the US Presidential race (still unresolved as we write) that has affected the markets. Oil prices have slid because of Covid-19.
If Biden wins he will have his hands full with multiple crises – the pandemic, unemployment, climate change, and deep political division.
Coronavirus cases continue to surge in the U.S. and Europe, and nationwide lockdowns in several European countries will drag down demand. The U.S. surpassed 120,000 cases in a single day on Thursday.
Oil prices contine to trade in a narrow range around $40 per barrel. mOPEC+ is still wrestling with partners and conscience as to what to do next as tjheir own economies suffer.
Friday morning the market opened very much down. However, there was some modicom of comfort as the markets started to creep up.
Three of the biggest OPEC producers behind Saudi Arabia may not be on board with extending the current cuts into next year. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait are reportedly not particularly inclined to support a rollover of the cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), because such cuts are too deep for their economies and budget incomes to sustain.
Crude did recover slightly on Friday with Brent managing to reach $41.77. For the best part crude has traded at an average of $40 for the better part of four months. now for nearly 4 months.
UK Market Trends
Autumn distributor heating oil prices are still 42% cheaper than for the same period last year. Bargains are still to be had as we approach the Christmas festivities. However, as we edge towards Christmas and Winter we find prices are moving up.
Heating oil prices start to move up. Overall, heating oil distributor prices rose 0.46ppl on the week. The lowest price to be had was on Tuesday when it was 27.79ppl. Take note, the heating oil price trend is now rising in anticipation of colder weather and possible supply issues during lockdown. Make no mistake, colder weather is on its way late November early December. We feel prices will continue to rise gradually and in small amounts!
Most broker prices have settled down after being uncompetitve. They are now trading in a tighter band of 28ppl to 31ppl. Brokers worthy of note are homefuelsdirect, and the heatingoil club all of whom maintain a quality pricing structure. UK prices did rise mid week but quickly fell back by today.
Although the price fall of 0.31ppl is small the overall price did not fall below 28.17ppl. Take note, the heating oil price trend is currently flat to falling and is now more weather dependant than on crude oil pricing. Make no mistake, colder weather is on its way. We feel prices will start to rise in the first week of November!
Although prices continue to be at an all time 4 Year low, demand for heating oil is rising. The good news today is that prices are around 42% cheaper than this time last year. Inevitably, we will see further demand for heating oil increasing as the weather becomes colder, so, buy heating oil now and fill up.
Buying heating oil is all about timing! At this moment in time, we see distributor prices remaining at these levels for a at least 4 days. Most distributors are quoting between 27ppl to 29ppl.
UK Regional Analysis
UK heating oil prices have increased by 1.65% this week. Over the last 7 days there has been an increase in the average UK oil distributor heating oil prices on the week of 0.46ppl finishing up today at 28.41ppl.
At the moment distributor heating oil prices are trending up.
England – average prices rose by 0.55ppl to 28.77ppl.
Wales – average prices rose by 0.28ppl to 28.79ppl.
Scotland – average prices fell by 0.46ppl to 32.37ppl.
Northern Ireland – average prices rose by 0.01ppl to 26.01ppl.
Heating oil prices start to move up and to keep advised on heating oil prices we recommend checking in on our twitter feed. You can also request multiple quotes from heatingoilshop.com on a regular basis to avoid any possible imminent price rises. We’re not teaching our customers to suck eggs but always fill your heating oil tanks on lower prices.
During the last 7 days, UK heating oil prices have risen by 1.65% this week. This amounts to an average rise of 0.46ppl after adjustment and vat.
For the time being, milder weather has arrived but heating oil prices are now trending up, despite falling crude oil prices. At this moment in time, we see domestic prices possibly rising in small amounts as distributors test the market.
We could also see prices rise due to delivery days and an anticipated colder spell at the end of the month.
Again, crude oil prices floated higher mid week, fell back by Friday and still trade in a tight band. Growth in crude oil continues to be severely restricted. We see no change for the coming weeks. Any small movements will have little effect on the UK heating oil market.